Am I the only one who happened to watch a Link TV documentary back in 2009 of European (Scandinavian, I believe) scientists studying temperature change due to Global Warming? I had missed the beginning, and they were summarizing their projection. First, they saw that the steady straight-line temperature increase would cause the permafrost to thaw. This would cause methane to be released, which is some 80 times worse than CO₂. The temperature curve started an upward rise.
After about 25 years as I recall, this temperature spike warmed the oceans 5.6°F, which caused the vast liquid methane pockets at the bottom of river estuaries to turn to gas. The temperature curve then took on a parabolic rise. By 2086, their model predicted an 18°F temperature rise. They pointed out matter-of-factly that in past geological eras, these were ages of mass extinctions.
Very alarming. Hopefully they are wrong. But what if they aren’t?
Visiting the Climatologists
I decided it was time to visit a senior climatologist. My questions: Had they heard of the above report? What model is COP using? Does it take into account methane release — the double whammy?
I went down to UCAR (University of Colorado Atmospheric Research). Lo and behold, there was a conference of polar climatologists in progress. The receptionist introduced me to the conference organizer, Mike Patterson. He did not know about the documentary. The COP model is determined every ten years by the CMIP (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) — a compilation of many models from a variety of countries. Their prediction: 2.7°F by 2050 and 3.6–7.2°F by 2100. I noted that all models seem to relatively conform, and that independent model projections are not incorporated.
The methane issue is a “hot topic,” Mike said. The scientists are reluctant to make predictions because they do not have data yet — i.e. until permafrost starts releasing methane on a measurable basis. I asked if I could read my concerns to the conference but was told they were behind schedule. I went up on the balcony and looked at the boards put up by the presenters. None were about methane release due to permafrost thawing.
A Stunning Revelation
I then reached out to old college friends who had careers in astrophysics. One sent me the MIT Climate Portal: “Thawing Permafrost Worsens Climate Change — but We Don’t Know How Much.” Articles included: 1,500 gigatons of methane estimated to be stored in the permafrost, and methane release could cancel out all gains made to date.
The other, Gilles Sommeria, works at the WMO (World Meteorological Organization) in Geneva and explained that the CMIP is determined by data gathered by the IPCC. He also said that no hypotheses are allowed — i.e. coming methane release is not taken into account.
I am stunned. So it’s no surprise that all the models yield similar results. I am sensing a Convenient Standard Narrative.
He also pointed out that we have crossed the tipping point of no more permafrost — and that being a tipping point, there is no going back.
Einstein said: “I believe that only audacious speculation can lead us further, not the accumulation of facts.” COP’s worst-case scenario, SSP5-8.5, only takes into account unmitigated CO₂ release — no tundra or ocean methane increase considered.
Frankly, given what seems likely to occur, COP is guilty of gross negligence — and perhaps the death of billions — by purposely avoiding considering the coming methane storm.
The Simple Math
Current CO₂ negated by all renewables: 2.6 Gt
Methane needed to cancel that: 2.6 ÷ 80 = 0.0325 Gt
As % of Arctic 200 Gts: (0.0325 ÷ 200) × 100 =
Likelihood? Not even debated or considered by COP. So are their predictions valid? If they are off by that extremely small amount, an unstoppable feedback loop could begin, leading to an age of mass extinction.
The Graph
Methane release temperature rise per documentary versus COP predictions — Black line from 2009 documentary seen on LINK TV
Tipping Points #2 and #3
Permafrost Melt
- —Warming thaws Arctic soils
- —Methane and CO₂ released from ancient organic matter
- —Feedback loop: more warming → more thaw → more emissions
- —Scientists estimate hundreds of gigatons could be released
Ocean Methane Blowout
- —As oceans warm, undersea methane hydrates destabilize
- —Sudden methane plumes released into the atmosphere
- —Some projections warn of 10–18°F warming spikes within decades
- —Could accelerate mass extinction within a human lifetime
Simply put, if we cross Tipping Point #2, methane release is no longer confined to just the tundra but has gone global — all the river estuaries of the world. Between 1,000 to 5,000 GTs of ocean methane hydrates. And one Gt of methane is already three and a half times the 23 Gt of annual global CO2. You do the math…
And Tipping Point #3: what if all of Antarctica melts? Include Greenland and all the glaciers. The web says ocean rise of 230 feet. The “Doomsday Glacier” (Thwaites) alone could raise sea levels worldwide — and acts as a dam for West Antarctic ice that could raise levels 10 feet if released.
Why Is COP Quiet on This?
- Too inconvenient for politics — demands radical, immediate action
- Not easily mitigated — no easy tech fixes exist for these feedbacks
- Models don’t agree — uncertainty used as a political excuse to delay
- It’s a planetary wildcard — hard to predict = easy to ignore
There is no climate stability without confronting the Arctic and ocean methane threat. Delay is denial. Denial is doom.
If COP does not give scientists the leeway to do some “audacious speculation” and kick it in gear now, then we are doomed. Do we just play ignorant and pass the buck to future generations — or do we wake up and take responsibility for what we have created? The former is deadly. The latter could be a very enlivening challenge.
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by Jeffrey Combelic — © 2026 UrgentClimateActionNow.ngo — Openly licensed via Creative Commons CC BY 4.0. If shared or published elsewhere please notify: jdc570@gmail.com