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Disturbing Methane Facts and Politics

Why? Because Arctic and Ocean methane emissions are being overlooked, understudied, and underestimated by the COP (Conference of Parties).

And people don’t realize that the fate of life on earth is in the hands of the COP, the UN organization to ” inform and direct Climate Change”.

Methane Release Temperature Rise vs COP Predictions

Methane release temperature rise per documentary versus COP predictions — Black line from 2009 documentary seen on LINK TV

This graph, to the best of my memory, is from a 2009 global warming documentary. Climatologists consider it to be extreme and think it will take until the end of the century for much methane to be released from the tundra. However if the following facts are considered, it may not be so far-fetched.

The permafrost is melting — so far 10% of 22,000,000 km². The cap on hundreds of gigatons (GTs) of tundra methane will be gone. We are entering a new geological era. Simple math indicates how perilous our situation is becoming. (Hundreds is considered to be at least 200 by the dictionary, and note other estimates are up to seven times this amount. For sake of argument, I’ll use 200.)

Consider the Following

Factually the web provides the following key information:

The amount of CO2 that renewables are cancelling: 2.6Gt (gigatons)/yr
Amount of Methane in Permafrost area: hundreds of Gt (choose 200)
Methane is 80 times worse than CO2
Lifetime of Methane: 20 yrs. Then it gradually degrades
Amount of Methane to cancel out global warming savings from renewables: 2.6 Gt ÷ 80 = .0325 Gt
Assuming a 20 year build up : .0325 Gt ÷ 20yr = .001625 Gt/yr =1625 Kt/yr
In percent of the methane from the thawing permafrost: 1625kt/yr ÷ (10% x 200 Gt) = .008125%/yr

that’s less than 1 thousandth of the 10% thawed. Scientists tend to discount this as they feel most of the methane is subsurface. But this is a very small margin of error.

Research is so incomplete that even the 1625m Kt/yr cumulative arctic methane emission is not even compilable!

Further Consider

Methane to cancel renewables over 20 years = 1,625 kt/yr
Amount spread out over thawed permafrost area: 1,625Kt/yr ÷ 2,200,000 km2 = 0.74 t/yr/km²
Russian studies indicate an 18% increase over 10 years, so over 20 years: 0.74 ÷ 1.36 = 0.54 t/yr/km²

I am calling this the Critical Arctic Methane Tipping Point — the CAMTP.

This number will decrease as the percent of thawed permafrost increases. E.g. at 15% thawed (predicted in 10 years) the CAMTP becomes 0.36 t/yr/km². At some point ground level measurements will equal or surpass this. Then an unstoppable feedback loop would lead to an Age of Mass Extinctions — defined as the end of 95% of all life forms, as per the documentary graph.

Politically

During my research I contacted a former college friend who went on to have a career in atmospheric physics. He worked at the WMO (World Meteorological Organization) and was on the team that handled the data relay from the researchers (IPCC) to the climate modelers (CMIP). He said: no hypotheses were allowed.

I am stunned. COP going on 30 years and not allowing postulation about arctic methane in its projections. Could such be considered valid?

Then there is a serious ethical question of how and why it was decided to not allow scientists to postulate about arctic and ocean methane in their projections. The thawing of the permafrost was readily foreseeable. It was known it contained vast amounts of methane. Already in the early 2000s Russian scientists were returning data from Siberian methane bogs from which extrapolation could have been done. And how come the documentary I saw, and a corresponding article, are not available? Believe me I have tried finding them. The documentary appears to have been taken down. Why??

My View

It is imperative that methane ground source data from the entire thawed permafrost area be collected ASAP and updated yearly at least. Drop the peer-reviewed time lag on that data. CMIP scientists or a NEW GROUP need to gather yearly. WE NEED TO KNOW WHERE WE STAND AND HOW THIS IS PROGRESSING

of note:

Just recently a small research project using USGS drones looks promising for measuring ground level emissions (see NEWS tab) I’d say COP/the UN needs to vastly fund arctic drone research given the risk its methane represents. An Arctic Methane Mapping Project needs to be commenced.

What ChatGPT Had to Say

We ran this in July 2025: “Conference of Parties ignoring tundra and ocean methane” into ChatGPT (try it yourself!):

🌍 The Methane Time Bomb COP Won’t Touch

Ignoring Arctic & Ocean Methane: Blindfolded on a Ticking Clock

The COP climate summits have largely sidestepped the catastrophic threat of methane releases from thawing Arctic permafrost and ocean floor methane hydrates — especially in shallow Arctic shelves like the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, where warming seas threaten to destabilize clathrates. Despite methane being 80+ times more potent than CO₂ over a 20-year period, these massive feedback loops are barely addressed in mitigation plans.

Stage 1

Permafrost Melt

—Warming thaws Arctic soils
—Methane and CO₂ released from ancient organic matter
—Feedback loop: more warming → more thaw → more emissions
—Scientists estimate hundreds of gigatons could be released

Stage 2

Ocean Methane Blowout

—As oceans warm, undersea methane hydrates destabilize
—Sudden methane plumes released into the atmosphere
—Some projections warn of 10–18°F warming spikes within decades
—Could accelerate mass extinction within a human lifetime

WHAT’S BEING IGNORED?
The Conference Of Parties climate summits, meant to guide international action on climate change, have largely sidestepped the catastrophic threat of methane releases from:

Thawing Arctic permafrost – vast regions of frozen soil now releasing trapped methane (CH₄) as they thaw due to warming.

Ocean floor methane hydrates – especially in shallow Arctic shelves (like the East Siberian Arctic Shelf), where warming seas threaten to destabilize clathrates (frozen methane cages under pressure).

Despite methane being 80+ times more potent than CO₂ over a 20-year period, these massive feedback loops are barely addressed in mitigation plans.

💥 THE CONSEQUENCES: A TWO-STAGE TIPPING POINT

Stage 1 – Permafrost Melt:

Warming thaws Arctic soils.

Methane and CO₂ released from ancient organic matter.

Feedback loop: More warming → more thaw → more emissions.

Scientists estimate hundreds of gigatons of carbon could be released.

Stage 2 – Ocean Methane Blowout:

As oceans warm by even a few degrees, undersea methane hydrates destabilize.

Sudden methane plumes could be released into the atmosphere.

Some projections warn of rapid warming spikes (e.g., 10–18°F within decades in extreme models).

This could accelerate mass extinction, collapse agriculture, destabilize ecosystems, and provoke societal chaos within a human lifetime.

🔕 Why Is COP Quiet on This?

Too inconvenient for politics — acknowledging it demands radical, immediate action
Not easily mitigated — no easy carbon pricing or tech fixes exist for these feedbacks
Models don’t agree — the uncertainty is used as a political excuse to delay
It’s a planetary wildcard — hard to predict = easy to ignore

🌒 Final Word: Time Is Not Linear Anymore

Methane doesn’t wait for political agreements. If ignored, these methane triggers could bypass human control and render even Paris-level CO₂ goals obsolete. We’re no longer just debating emissions — we’re gambling with Earth’s ancient carbon vaults.