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Will There Be Life on Earth in the 22nd Century? — Maybe Not
Why? Because of potential Arctic and Ocean Methane Release
Welcome to:
Created to help the world avoid this:
Why? Because of potential Arctic and Ocean Methane Release
A Think Tank and Grassroots Movement to raise awareness and redress a dysfunctional system
Why? Because of potential Arctic and Ocean Methane Release.
Methane release temperature rise per documentary versus COP predictions — Black line from 2009 documentary seen on LINK TV
This graph, to the best of my memory, is from a 2009 global warming documentary. Climatologists consider it to be extreme and think it will take until the end of the century for much methane to be released from the tundra. However if the following facts are considered, it may not be so far-fetched.
The permafrost is melting — so far 10% of 22,000,000 km². The cap on hundreds of gigatons (GTs) of tundra methane will be gone. We are entering a new geological era. Simple math indicates how perilous our situation is becoming. (Hundreds is considered to be at least 200 by the dictionary, and note other estimates are up to seven times this amount. For sake of argument, I’ll use 200.)
Methane lifetime is 20 years, so 1/20 would suffice per year: .1625% ÷ 20 = .00813% — that’s less than 1 thousandth of the 10% thawed. Scientists tend to discount this as they feel most of the methane is subsurface. But this is a very small margin of error.
Methane to cancel renewables over 20 years = 1,625 kt/yr
Amount spread out over thawed permafrost area = 0.74 t/yr/km²
Russian studies indicate an 18% increase over 10 years, so over 20 years: 0.74 ÷ 1.36 = 0.54 t/yr/km²
I am calling this the Incontrovertible Arctic Methane Peril Threshold — the IAMPT.
This number will decrease as the percent of thawed permafrost increases. E.g. at 15% thawed (predicted in 10 years) the IAMPT becomes 0.36 t/yr/km². At some point ground level measurements will equal or surpass this. Then an unstoppable feedback loop would lead to an Age of Mass Extinctions — defined as the end of 95% of all life forms, as per the documentary graph.
| Description | Value | Unit | |
|---|---|---|---|
| INPUTS | |||
| 2 | Percent of thawed permafrost | 10% | |
| 3 | Potency of Methane vs. CO₂ | 80× | |
| 4 | Methane decays after | 20 years | |
| 5 | Quantity of Arctic Methane (web says hundreds; seen 1,400 cited also) | 200 | Gt |
| 6 | CO₂ negated by renewables | 2.6 | Gt |
| 7 | Total area of permafrost (21–23 million per web) | 22,000,000 | km² |
| 8 | Area of thawed permafrost (10% × B7) | 2,200,000 | km² |
| CALCULATIONS | |||
| 10 | Amount of methane to cancel renewables (B6 ÷ B3) | 0.0325 | Gt |
| 11 | Methane Gt from thawed area (10% × B5) | 20 | Gt |
| 12 | Fraction of thawed methane needed (B10 ÷ B11) | 0.001625 | |
| 13 | Percent of thawed Arctic methane to cancel renewables (B12 × 100) | 0.1625% | |
| 14 | Margin of error of predictions over 20 years (B13 ÷ 20) | 0.00813% | |
| Note: Above presumes no feedback loop and constant emission — so probably much lower | |||
| GROUND LEVEL MEASUREMENT IMPLICATIONS | |||
| 17 | Methane to cancel renewables over 20 years, in kilotons | 1,625 | kt/yr |
| 18 | Spread over thawed permafrost area, in tons | 0.74 | t/yr/km² |
|
B18 ABOVE: CONSERVATIVE ALARM LEVEL OF AVG. GROUND MEASUREMENT Studies by M. Glagolev et al. (2011) showed 18% emissions increase over 10 years → adjusted alarm level: 0.54 t/yr/km² See: Environ. Res. Lett. 6 045214 |
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During my research I contacted a former college friend who went on to have a career in atmospheric physics. Gilles Sommeria worked at the WMO (World Meteorological Organization) and was on the team that handled the data relay from the researchers (IPCC) to the climate modelers (CMIP). He said: no hypotheses were allowed.
I am stunned. COP going on 30 years and not allowing postulation about arctic methane in its projections. Could such be considered valid?
Then there is a serious ethical question of how and why it was decided to not allow scientists to postulate about arctic and ocean methane in their projections. The thawing of the permafrost was readily foreseeable. It was known it contained vast amounts of methane. Already in the early 2000s Russian scientists were returning data from Siberian methane bogs from which extrapolation could have been done. And how come the documentary I saw, and the corresponding article, are not available? Believe me I have tried finding them.
It is imperative that methane ground source data from the entire thawed permafrost area be collected ASAP and updated yearly at least. Drop the peer-reviewed time lag on that data. CMIP scientists need to gather yearly. We need to know where we stand and how this is trending.
When one runs “Conference of Parties ignoring tundra and ocean methane” into ChatGPT (try it yourself!):
The COP climate summits have largely sidestepped the catastrophic threat of methane releases from thawing Arctic permafrost and ocean floor methane hydrates — especially in shallow Arctic shelves like the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, where warming seas threaten to destabilize clathrates. Despite methane being 80+ times more potent than CO₂ over a 20-year period, these massive feedback loops are barely addressed in mitigation plans.
Methane doesn’t wait for political agreements. If ignored, these methane triggers could bypass human control and render even Paris-level CO₂ goals obsolete. We’re no longer just debating emissions — we’re gambling with Earth’s ancient carbon vaults.
“There is no climate stability without confronting the Arctic and ocean methane threat. Delay is denial. Denial is doom.”
Jeffrey Combelic — © 2026 UCAN.ngo — Openly licensed via Creative Commons CC BY 4.0